Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up Forecasting: Which One to Use and When
Whether you're launching a new product, planning next year's budget, or pitching to investors, forecasting is the compass that guides your business decisions. But there’s often a key question that causes confusion: Should you forecast from the top down or build it from the bottom up? Both approaches can get you where you want to go—but the right one depends on how you like to navigate. Let’s break it down in plain terms. What Is Top-Down Forecasting? Think of top-down forecasting like looking at the map from 30,000 feet. You start with the big picture—like the total market size or company-wide revenue targets—and then divide that number into smaller chunks for teams, products, or regions. How it works: Let’s say your company aims for $10 million in revenue next year. With top-down forecasting, you might allocate that target across departments based on historical performance. Maybe marketing gets $2 million, product A gets $4 million, and so on. Why companies like it: ...